Even after the end of the Cold War, the greatest rivalries of all time have come face-to-face again. With the expiration of the US-Russian nuclear pact on February 5, 2026, which was signed under the name START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) in 2010 between US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It came into existence during the following year and now world affairs are likely to see the biggest strategic shift. This treaty was aimed at preventing nuclear escalation between both sides of the powerful parties by stringently capping each side with 1550 deployed strategic warheads, 700 deployed delivery vehicles, and 800 total launchers.
This treaty was specifically drafted in order to renew the older pacts that have a long history from Reagan-Bush (START I, 1991), following the 2002 Moscow Treaty, to the final negotiation between Obama and Medvedev on April 8, 2010. This treaty was meant to end in 2021, however it was extended with the coming of Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin to February 5, 2026. With the expiration of this treaty which formerly limited these two nations for decades, complying with the arms escalation now makes them free from the restraints imposed since 1970s. Arm deployment does not mean the total or overall arms hoardings, but how much a nation is ready to fire weapons. In fact, these two countries hold more than 90% of global warheads.
The possible threats with its expiration are many, including, without limitation, these countries can deploy more than they ever did, thereby creating distrust and causing harm to moral responsibility. Also, given their possible behaviour, the significance of other essential treaties, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), can be negatively impacted, leading other countries accumulate more nuclear weapons as the gates to armament are open again. The tension may increase with the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia; Europe does not have bilateral stability, which is huge risk in itself. While the aim of the Trilateral Treaty (US-RUSSIA-CHINA) of Donald Trump, with the method of economic leverage like tariffs, could be a potential step for softening the global powers. However, China's global influence must not be underestimated. It would be important to know whether this kind of major strategic shift could create chaos or clarity in contemporary world affairs.
Will the expiration of the start arms treaty lead to fear of tension in the world order?
